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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."